THE STRANGE EXISTENCE OF JAGDISH SHETH

Two years back, when I heard this name being whispered in management circles, it sounded more like that of a garment trader’s [think about it, Jagdish Sheth & Sons...] than like that of the leading management thinker of modern times. At that time, Fortune had mentioned this media-avoiding former MIT & Columbia professor’s name in a futuristic article, with reference to his unique Rule of Three [a rule that competitive industries, in general, will finally only be left with three significant players]. An year later, this 67 year old imp of a powerhouse called Sheth combined his years of exhaustive global research on the world’s leading corporations and wrote the rule book on why CEOs of the world’s leading and most successful corporations will destroy themselves and their companies [The Self-Destructive Habits of Good Companies] because of a simple reason, “Complacency!” (The book was picked up by the famed Wharton Publishing).

“I used to think that competition destroys good companies. Strangely, I found that’s not true: companies destroy themselves… Success breeds complacency. The average life span of corporations is declining, even as that of humans is rising.” Out of the seven self-destructive habits of corporations, Sheth lists “The No-One-Can-Beat Me Syndrome: Arrogance & Complacency” as number one! From Prof. Carl Robinson of University of Maryland, [Why Great Companies Fail] to the famed Courtman & Wild of Turnaround Management Association [Avoiding Common Traps That Lead to Distress], leading management scientists now accept that complacency of CEOs is the Number 1 reason why companies get destroyed! In fact, now the most famous Prof. Clayton M. Christensen of HBS notes, “Leading companies decline and sometimes die not because of competitor’s advances, but because of new players with lower-quality solutions!” However out of this world this might, this is exactly what Sheth warns about. The first one to forecast that GE is self destructing itself in turf wars, all Sheth got from the world were chuckles. Today, Immelt has proved to be the worst performing CEO of all times for GE. During Immelt’s 7 year reign, GE stocks have plummeted by 30.2% [Jack Welch’s first 7 years had seen a 140.2% rise: Bloomberg].

CEOs have completely forgotten the concept of visioning. Forget visioning, unbelievably so, CEOs have even stopped “thinking.” Ask a CEO a modern management paradigm, and all you’ll see is a blank face. Ask yourself, when was the last time you sat down to ‘think’. Sheth is the first to statistically prove that where earlier “a [Fortune] company would be in existence for 50 to 60 years, now its life cycle is down to just 10.5 years!” Shocked? Sheth’s corporate clients roster now includes Cox Communications, Delta, Ernst and Young, Ford, Lucent Technologies, Motorola, Nortel, Sprint, 3M, Whirlpool, and even General Electric itself, the same company he doesn’t lose an opportunity to criticise. BusinessWeek now notes, “Dr. Sheth is one of the most globally acclaimed academicians, authors, and Board Advisors,” connected to 186 board members across the world [he’s now even a Director at Wipro]! Cut to June 2008, Sheth wins the Guizeta Global Innovation Award; it is presented to him by John Quelch, Senior Associate Dean at HBS in a small ceremony... It’s seriously a strange existence for this man I know of as Jagdish Sheth. And imagine, you hadn’t even heard of him! That’s complacency! This is a special double issue of 4ps B&M and as we have burnt a lot of midnight oil, I guess it is time for us to take time off and be a little complacent. we will be back after a break issue. Cheers!!!

Does anybody really know what smartphone market share is?

An article in Wired online this week had a chart showing US smartphone market share (link). The chart gave more detail than I've seen recently from other research companies, so I thought it was worth reproducing the data here:



The source is Nielsen Mobile, formerly Telephia. The interesting thing about them is that they do much of the service quality monitoring for the operators, so they have much more direct access to mobile usage information than folks like IDC and Canalys, the people usually quoted for smartphone share.

Wired was focused on Palm's loss of market share, which is indeed striking (but not exactly news). But take a look at the chart again; there are a couple of other items that I think are more newsworthy.

The first surprise is that Nielsen shows Apple in fourth place in smartphone share. That's wildly different from what Canalys, the source usually reported, has been saying (link). Here's how they compare for Q4 2007:




What in the world is going on here?

I'm not sure, but I have some guesses. Canalys doesn't directly measure market share, it receives self-reported shipment reports from the manufacturers and then adds them up. That means Canalys measures shipments into the channel rather than sales, and it depends on the hardware companies to be honest.

Riiiight.

Nielsen Mobile doesn't explain on its website exactly how it measures share, but apparently it's using a mix of survey results and the usage data it gathers from the operators (link). So its numbers should reflect current usage of phones rather than shipments. If Nielsen is measuring installed base share, rather than share of current sales, that might explain the difference. Although in that case, share should not be changing as fast as Nielsen shows. So I'm still confused.

If anybody can shed more light on the source of the difference, please post a comment. I've also asked Nielsen, and will let you know if I hear anything.

The conflict in the numbers underlines how ridiculously useless the publicly-available third party sales numbers are in the mobile phone market, and how little attention the press is paying to the inconsistencies. Apple's share varies from 8% to 28%, and no one even notices. Hey, we got a pretty chart and it confirms what we wanted to say, so don't ask questions.

If you want more information on the problems with mobile market share tracking, I wrote a detailed post here (link).

I said there were two newsworthy things about the Nielsen numbers. Can you spot the second one?

That's right, since the iPhone was released, RIM has been gaining share. So much for the folks who predicted at the launch of the iPhone that it was going to take the smartphone market away from RIM. Instead, at least in the first round of competition, we see what you'd expect from a segmented market -- RIM appeals to some customers, Apple appeals to a different group, and both companies do well.

I can't wait to see what the numbers will look like in six months, after the iPhone 3G has been out for a while. Although probably Canalys and Nielsen will still disagree wildly on what's happening.

Only 10% of Japanese people know how to use all the functions in their mobile phones

A Japanese survey of mobile phone users, translated by What Japan Thinks, reports that only about 10% of Japanese mobile phone users say they have mastery (or a good command) over all the functions of their mobile phones (link). About 75% of users say they have mastered less than half of the functions in the phone.

The most confusing functions were e-wallet, applications in general, music player, and Internet access.

What Japan Thinks concludes that few people in Japan "are really comfortable with their phones," which I find reassuring because it says that people in Japan aren't all that different from everyone else on the planet. In many countries there's a tendency to believe that people in Japan (and Korea) use mobile devices so differently from everyone else that there's nothing useful to learn from them. It's as if they're on a different planet. But the reality is that even in Japan, a phone overloaded with features and cryptic menus is confusing to anyone except the most dedicated technophiles.

It is interesting that so many mobile phones in Japan have e-wallet, applications, music, and Internet built in. That's a result of the aggressive rollout of integrated phones and online services by Japanese mobile phone operators -- the real driver that I think makes the Japanese mobile market so different.

(By the way, in case anyone's interested, another survey determined that 14 percent of Japanese cats won't go to the bathroom if someone's watching [link]. Who knew?)